Quiet Week Before Big Economic Reveals
- Mortgage Returns
- Nov 19, 2025
- 2 min read
Overview: With a lack of major economic data, mortgage markets were relatively quiet over the past week. The Federal Reserve minutes caused little reaction, and mortgage rates ended the week slightly higher.
The detailed minutes from the October 29 Fed meeting released on Wednesday confirmed that officials were divided about what was more concerning for the economy: stubborn inflation or a slowing labor market. Signs of weakness in the labor market support additional loosening of monetary policy, but persistently elevated inflation levels favor the opposite approach. The minutes also noted that officials were working with extremely limited economic data due to the shutdown. Fed Chair Jerome Powell compared this to “driving in the fog.” As a result, investors are nearly evenly split about whether the Fed
will reduce the federal funds rate by another 25 basis points at the next meeting on December 10.
The latest National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index, a survey of home builder sentiment on housing market conditions, revealed a modest surprise to
the upside. The index increased to 38, above the consensus forecast of 37, reaching the highest level since April. Looking at the bigger picture, however, this was the 19th consecutive reading below 50, indicating that most home builders do not feel optimistic about the current and short-term outlook for the housing market. Many builders continued to provide incentives to lure home buyers, with 41% offering lower prices, the highest
level in the post-Covid period. The average price reduction reported by builders was 6%, the largest cut in a year. Builders again cited higher costs and economic uncertainty due
to tariffs and the government shutdown as significant obstacles to a faster pace
of construction.
Other housing sector data released this week highlighted another recent trend. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the median age of first-time buyers was 40 years old, while the typical homebuyer in the 1980s was in their late 20s. Roughly one-third of adults ages 18-34 lived with their parents, according to the latest 2024 American Community Survey (ACS).
NAHB Housing Market Index
Week Ahead
Nov. 20
Employment Report
Existing-Home Sales report
Nov. 25
Producer Price Index (PPI)
Nov. 26
New-Home Sales report
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