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Lock-in-Effect is Starting to Ease, Bringing Sellers Back

  • Mortgage Returns
  • Nov 12
  • 1 min read

But first-time buyers face hurdles.

Market Perspective: Lock-in-Effect is Starting to Ease, Bringing Sellers Back. As mortgage rates decline, more homeowners are willing to list. Existing-home inventory is up 14% Year over Year [1]. 30-year fixed rates hit a 12-month low in October [2]. Lower rates = More inventory
Lock-in Effect: When homeowners delay selling to avoid giving up their ultra-low mortgage rate for a higher one.

First-Time Buyers Are Falling Behind • Share of first-time buyers dropped to a historic low: 21% o (Compared to ~40% before 2008) • Median age: 40 — All-time high o Up from 38 the year before • First-time buyers are making higher down payments: 10%3 (highest since 1989) • Median income: $94,400 vs. national $81,6044 Overall, today’s buyers are getting older, largely due to affordability barriers that continue to sideline younger buyers. Homebuyer Education Matters First-time buyers aren’t just facing affordability challenges: They’re facing an information gap. Creative solutions exist — like down payment assistance, flexible loan options, and first-time buyer programs — but many younger buyers don’t know they’re available. • 1 in 5 have delayed buying due to financial literacy confusion • 76% lacked homeownership literacy until after buying • 1 in 8 can’t accurately define “mortgage” • 1 in 4 Gen Z renters get homebuying advice from TikTok
Sources:

  1. National Association of Realtors® (NAR), Existing-Home Sales, September 2025.
  2. ICE Mortgage Monitor, November 2025.
  3. NAR, 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers.
  4. Realtor.com, “The Typical First-Time Homebuyer Is Now 40 Years Old, a Record High,” November 4, 2025.
  5. JW Surety Bonds, “Are Americans Prepared for Homeownership? A Look at Knowledge Gaps,” January 27, 2025.

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