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2026 Housing Market Outlook: What Industry Experts Predict

  • Mortgage Returns
  • 5 days ago
  • 1 min read

Easing mortgage rates, rising inventory, and moderating home prices could improve affordability and spark renewed activity in the housing market. Here’s what industry experts predict* for the year ahead. Refinance Opportunities • Falling rates are opening the door for millions of homeowners to lower their monthly payments with a refinance. • In the fall, there were 1.7M highly qualified refi candidates (the most in 3.5 years)1 o Highly qualified = 720+ credit score, 20% equity, and potential rate savings of 75+ bps • Excluding credit and equity criteria, that number jumps to 4.1M1 • If rates dip further, over 5M borrowers could benefit from refinancing1 Increased Homebuying Demand • Improved affordability and inventory should bring buyers out of hibernation. • Mortgage rates projected to hover around 5.9%-6.4% by year-end. o Mortgage rate forecast: o MBA:2 6.4% o NAR:3 6.0% o Fannie Mae:4 5.9% • Inventory expected to rise +8.9%5, easing competition — though supply at lower price points may remain tight.3 Moderating Price Growth • Affordability improved in all 100 major U.S. metros last year6, and appreciation is expected to slow this year. • Home-price growth forecast: o NAR:3 +4% o Realtor.com:5 +2.2% o Fannie Mae HPI:4 +1.3% • For the first time in years, income growth is expected to outpace home-price appreciation, slowly improving affordability.7 Stronger Home Sales • Experts agree that sales will climb, but opinions diverge on how high. • Existing-home sales forecast: o NAR:3 +14% o Fannie Mae:4 +7.5% o MBA:2 +6.6% o Realtor.com:5 +1.7%

Easing mortgage rates, rising inventory, and moderating home prices could improve affordability and spark renewed activity in the housing market. Here’s what industry experts predict* for the year ahead.




*This content reflects forward-looking estimates from third-party sources and should not be interpreted as factual. This information does not necessarily represent the views or opinions of the sender.

Sources:

  1. ICE Mortgage Monitor, November 2025.
  2. Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), Mortgage Finance Forecast, December 12, 2025.
  3. National Association of Realtors® (NAR), “Housing Market Set for a 2026 Comeback, NAR Predicts,” November 15, 2025.
  4. Fannie Mae, Housing Forecast: December 2025.
  5. Realtor.com 2026 Housing Forecast, December 2, 2025.
  6. ICE Mortgage Monitor, December 2025.
  7. Redfin.com, “Redfin’s 2026 Predictions: Welcome to The Great Housing Reset,” December 2, 2025.

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